Learn
Bankroll Management for Football Bettors
The difference between a model that works and one that pays
What is a bankroll?
Unit sizing and the 1–2% rule
Drawdown tolerance and variance
Record-keeping and ROI tracking
When to walk away
Frequently asked
How big should my starting bankroll be?
Between 1% and 5% of your discretionary savings. For most recreational bettors that's €200–€2,000. The bankroll should be money you could lose completely without life consequences. If losing it would hurt, it's too big.
Should I use flat stakes or Kelly?
Flat 1–2% is a great starting point. Kelly is mathematically optimal but only if you know your true edge exactly, which nobody does. Most pros cap Kelly at 2% of bankroll, which is effectively flat staking with a small tilt toward higher-confidence picks.
How often should I rebalance unit size?
Weekly or after every 10 bets, whichever comes first. Don't rebalance after a single big win or loss - that's how you talk yourself into bigger stakes on the wrong days.
What do I do if I hit a 20% drawdown?
Nothing. Continue with the plan. A 20% drawdown is well within normal variance for a 5% edge model. The worst thing you can do is increase stakes to chase, which converts a recoverable situation into a terminal one. Drop back to quarter-Kelly if needed, but don't scale down your discipline.
How do I track closing-line value?
Log the price you took and the closing price (Pinnacle is the usual reference) for every bet. CLV = (your_price / closing_price) − 1. Average CLV above 0 over 100+ bets is a strong leading indicator of long-run profitability.